Mailbag: Are Yanks stingy with Joba?
Click around the radio dial and the sports television programs, and it seems like all of New York is fascinated with Joba Chamberlain. There's good reason: the 21-year-old has been electric so far, bringing in a flurry of questions for this week's Yankees mailbag.
As we have all seen, Chamberlain has been absolutely amazing. He is, without a doubt, the most effective arm in the bullpen. How long can the Yankees go before his talent is too much to deny a day off, or two, after every outing given the ineffectiveness of the rest of the bullpen?
-- Reed T., McGuire AFB, N.J.
At least another month, I'd say, though the Yankees are sticking steadfastly to the plan that the so-called "Chamberlain Rules" are here to stay. The club's investment in Chamberlain, whom they continue to project as a key piece in the organization's future, is heavy, and certainly no one wants to see a promising rookie suffer a setback.
The guidelines with which general manager Brian Cashman and the club's player development hierarchy have presented Chamberlain to manager Joe Torre are conservative by design; some might say too much so. If keeping Chamberlain healthy for September and potential playoff appearances means keeping him out a day after he pitches an inning, or holding him to 35 pitches if used for two innings, then the Yankees seem prepared to do that.
Watch closely how this progresses, though, and wonder if some of the rigidity may fall off if the Yankees keep up their run. If Chamberlain continues to retire batters with remarkable efficiency and the Yankees' postseason odds come down to a few select outs, you would think there might be some room to bend.
I originally thought the Red Sox did themselves a disservice by placing Jonathan Papelbon in the bullpen, but he is a great closer and has the demeanor to go along with it. Mariano Rivera had a great 1996 year as the setup man for John Wetteland. With Mariano reaching the end of his career, is there any talk of having Chamberlain set up for Mo next season and learn from him? Chamberlain has great command of his pitches and also has a cool-calm demeanor.
-- Erik Z., Buffalo, N.Y.
Let's get past this season before projecting Chamberlain's future role, though Cashman is on record as saying the Yankees still see him as a starting pitcher -- it just so happened that the organization internally realized Chamberlain could outproduce some of the relievers on the Major League roster earlier this year.
I wouldn't completely rule out Chamberlain's spot in relief; there have been so many starting pitchers who have found homes in the bullpen, and let's not forget that he's still an incomplete product -- Chamberlain's changeup and curveball could use development time if he is headed for the Yankees' rotation. For the time being, you see Chamberlain speaking so often with players like Rivera, Roger Clemens, etc. -- he's not shy about asking for advice. That can benefit him.
Please clear up a belief I have held for 60 years: the phrase "Holy Cow" was used by Harry Caray in his broadcasts of Cardinals games, as I remember from my grandpa's knee listening to the Cards broadcast. How does Phil Rizzuto claim he made it famous? I'm not degrading or disrespecting the Scooter's career on the field or broadcast booth, but our Little League went to St. Louis and bought us kids "Holy Cow" shirts to wear as our uniforms.
-- Bob W., Orange, Calif.
Correct you are. As Jack O'Connell wrote in his obituary for Rizzuto -- who passed away last week at 89 -- on MLB.com, "[Rizzuto] refused to give up his 'Holy Cow!' call that had been used first by another broadcasting legend, Harry Caray, because it was a phrase Rizzuto had used since childhood to avoid swearing. Anything that was part of Phil Rizzuto was part of his broadcast."
Though Caray may have said it first, the catch-phrase became part of Rizzuto's broadcasting essence; as much as the warm memories Yankees fans hold of his train-of-thought style, mid-inning birthday wishes to fans around the five boroughs, unpaid plugs for the Scooter's favorite bakeries, or early trips jetting across the George Washington Bridge to catch a few extra moments with his loving wife, Cora. "Holy Cow" may not have been completely original, but Rizzuto was one of a kind.
Looking at the standings on MLB.com, I notice there is a statistic called XW-L (expected win-loss record). This is a complex formula that the official Web site of MLB uses to determine the record the teams are expected to have in relation to their runs scored/runs against. The Yanks are now tied with Boston for the best of this "record" in all of baseball -- what are we to believe this might mean? Can you break the stat down?
-- Steve G., Charlotte, N.C.
The expected win-loss records provide some nice comparison and argument; generally, to see how "lucky" a team has been. The development of this statistic trails to sabermetrician Bill James, who came up with an equation in the 1980s that attempted to accurately predict how many games a team would win over the course of a season by examining how many runs were scored and allowed.
If you're a math whiz and want to cook up some numbers at home, the theorem is as follows: "Runs scored to an exponent of 1.83, divided by the sum of runs scored to an exponent of 1.83 plus runs allowed to an exponent of 1.83." Some versions also use two as the exponent.
What do you think the chances are of Bobby Abreu being a Yankee next year? I believe he could get $16 million, or the Yankees could buy him out for $2 million. With the overcrowded outfield, I don't see him back.
-- Steve S., New York
Your financial figures are roughly correct. If you'd asked this question in May or early June, I probably would have said the chances were extremely slim. With a $16 million option there for 2008, Abreu is not exactly an inexpensive piece. His offensive production sparked the Yankees late last season and if he repeats it, that could help make the price tag somewhat more palatable.
I hear Doug Mientkiewicz is preparing to rejoin the team soon. I am happy with the production of Wilson Betemit, Andy Phillips, Shelley Duncan, and the return of Jason Giambi. Does Doug have a job when he returns, and who would be sent down?
-- Tyler W., Mountainside, N.J.
Mientkiewicz is rehabbing in Tampa, Fla., but the Yankees do not plan to call him up until rosters expand to 40 players on Sept. 1. Upon return, he'll likely see time as a late-inning defensive replacement and part-time player; the same role he served for the '04 Red Sox.
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